The reports are for Toraripi now. (The previous results include Triauto as well as Toraripi.)
Contents
Status of This Week
This week's Toraripi
- JPY 145k
- Only AUD/NZD made a profit this week.
- As the announced CPI of New Zealand dropped on Tuesday, Oct 17th, I believe people thought the interest rate of RBNZ will not be raised more, which resulted in a quick raise in the AUD/NZD rate.
- 0 settlements for the other currency pairs...
- Only AUD/NZD made a profit this week.
This year, I set the following goal first, so it may be a little tough, but I would like to think about how to achieve this without giving up.
Goal by End of Mar, 2023
Earn an average of JPY 1M/month (250K/week)
After quitting the company and starting the life of FIRE, I will do nothing if I don't set a specific goal. Thus I set a goal. I will whip myself!
Until the end of 2022, Toraripi and Triauto were reported separately. If you are interested in them, please check the previous reports in Japanese.
Dashboards
Position Summary of Traripi
Establishment calendar of Traripi
Latest Settings
I am summarizing the settings of active currency pairs for my own reference.
In addition, I am learning every day by looking at the settings of many people who publish information on the Internet (regardless of the amount of investments). Therefore, I am also sharing my settings.
(I would like to give back to everyone who disclose their information.)
However, I cannot guarantee the performance with my settings. So please invest at your own risk.
Updates of The Week
- There is no update for this week.
There are no cross-yen currency pairs currently.
Immediately after the start of Toraripi, I had set the selling of CAD/JPY, but while the yen was swinging in the direction of extreme depreciation, I was hit by a negative swap, resulting in a drastic loss cut (the article in the link is in Japanese only).
I would like to participate in cross-yen currency pairs again when the yen swings in the direction of appreciation and it becomes possible to enter by buying, or when the yen raises interest rates and negative swaps are no longer a concern.
Operational Policy
- Avoid settings that make me nervous and unable to sleep. NOT to be ejected from the Forex market.
- Avoid loss cutting even in the worst case simulation
- When adding traps or making changes, iterate simulation always.
- Avoid extremely high negative swap points
- Given the risk of holding positions for a long period of time, I am avoiding extremely high negative swap points.
- I am trading currency pairs with some negative swaps, but it is desirable to have a little positive swap points overall.
The setting differs depending on the currency pair, but I basically have the following image.
It is not different from a general Half & Half strategy, but it has dense traps at the lower and upper zone of the assumed range.
The reason for this setting is as follows. Initially, I tried various things, but this setting increases the profit.
The Reason for Kuroneko-style Half & Half
- Positions obtained at the edge of the range can be held with less unrealized losses (as long as the price moves within the assumed range).
- Positions obtained at the edge of the range are expected to be settled relatively quickly (unless the price is within the assumed range).
- If holding the positions obtained in the middle of the range to the edge of the range, the unrealized loss will be increased largely. So, it is better to keep the number of traps in the middle so that you can withstand.
- For those who has affordable budget, it is okay to increase the number of traps in the center of the assumed range. Recently I also have denser settings for some currency pairs.
In addition, if the price rises or falls outside the assumed range, I think it is okay to set more traps there.
Though it depends on the situation, but you can do it if you are confident that it will return to the assumed range. It requires courage.
However, if it shifts to a completely different range than the expected range, cutting loss may happen. So please be careful in your operation.
Here is supplementary information about the settings for each currency pairs below.
Supplementary Information for Currency Pair Settings
- When operating with the Kuroneko-style setting, you can reduce (or increase) the number of traps according to your own budget. Please don't overdo.
- The ideal figure is to "leave it alone", but I've been repeatedly changing, adding, or deleting the settings. (Sometimes, I add traps owing to some affordable budget, but in the first place, I tend to want to mess around with various things.)
EUR/GBP
I love this currency pair as the swap point is currently positive for selling and I feel comfortable even if I hold the positions for a long time.
AUD/NZD
NZD/USD
To be honest, so far the volatility of this currency pair has not been very high, but I will continue to invest from the perspective of risk diversification.
For those who will start Toraripi newly, I think it is good to start with the other currency pairs.
USD/CAD
GBP/USD
Settings under Consideration
CAD/JPY - Withdrawn temporarily
CAD/JPY has become the biggest loss cut in my history.
I suffered from negative swaps for a long time, but when it fell below 100 yen in mid Dec, 2022, I did a loss cut.
I think the next entry point will be when the JPY becomes stronger and it is easy to buy it.
EUR/USD - Withdrawn temporarily
I would like to set selling to avoid negative swaps, but it is not the time and I have temporary withdrawn from this currency pair.
I think the entry by selling should exceed 1.1. Ideally, above 1.2.
I will continue to check the chart and hope to resume when I have a good entry point. At that time, I would like to inform you here.
EUR/AUD
This pair is not for Traripi but for Triauto.
To avoid negative swaps with buying, I am waiting for the timing when I can enter from selling.
I see the border between selling and buying at about 1.55. I am thinking the entry with selling will be made after exceeding 1.6.
(Currently, the rate exceeds 1.6, but I am still monitoring the situation. The EUR interest rate is approaching it of the AUD, and if holding a short position for a long time, I am not sure if the positive swap will be maintained depending on the future interest rate situation.)
AUD/USD
When introducing NZD/USD, I also compared it with AUD/USD as they have close correlation. As AUD/USD has relatively high negative swap points for buying, the entry with selling was preferred, but it was not the timing.
Even if the correlation with NZD/USD is close, the countries are different from Australia and New Zealand, and it will diversify the risk somewhat.
Extra: GBP/AUD
As GBP/AUD is not handled by Traripi or Triauto, it is easily traded with automated trading. However, swap points are relatively low for both buying and selling as both currencies have similar interest, it is easy to trade this currency pair. To enter from selling with positive swap points, I am watching if it falls more. If the price is below 1.7, I will start to buy this pair.
I am thinking to use DMM or OANDA for this trade.
Extra: USD/CHF
Please see the latest USD?CHF post in this category for the latest status. As a profit has been made, I prepared a separate page.
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