The reports of Traripi and Triauto, which has been separately reported are combined in one page since Wk1, 2023.
Contents
Status of This Week
The total revenue of Toraripi and Triauto was JPY +162K.
Breakdown of Earnings
- Toraripi JPY 95K
- Triauto JPY 67K
There were many events such as interest rate announcements by the FOMC, the BoE, and the ECB, as well as the release of US employment statistics last week and there were price fluctuations, but I could not earn so much as lots of new orders were established.
From the middle of this week, those traps worked well and I could obtain a decent result.
This Week's Status
- Top earners are still EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, and GBP/USD.
- CAD/JPY (Buy)
- I haven't touched the cross-yen pair since I withdrew from CAD/JPY (Sell), but I could not wait to start CAD/JPY (Buy). This started to work well right after setting it up on Friday.
- Originally, I thought that 90 is the upper limit to set CAD/JPY (Buy). (Even if I compromise, 90.) Since it is different from the initial range assumption, I was worried that there would be a lot of unrealized losses when it falls, but I lost over myself, because lots of people seemed to be making money with this pair. The last push was the article by Toraripi. (See link below. The article is in Japanese.) Traripi's ad won? (Even so, I don't want to enter EUR/JPY (sell) yet because the negative swap is too strong.)
This year, I set the following goal first, so it may be a little tough, but I would like to think about how to achieve this without giving up.
Goal by End of Mar, 2023
Earn an average of JPY 1M/month (250K/week)
After quitting the company and starting the life of FIRE, I will do nothing if I don't set a specific goal. Thus I set a goal. I will whip myself!
Until the end of 2022, Toraripi and Triauto were reported separately. If you are interested in them, please check the previous reports in Japanese.
Dashboards
Here is the Position Summary of Traripi.
The unrealized loss decreased a little because there were many settlements. I think there will be situations where unrealized losses will increase in the future, so I would like to try not to be overjoyed, but I am mentally at ease now.
Establishment calendar of Traripi. From late last week to early this week, I thought I was going to die.💦
Somehow it get back now.
The effective ratio of Triauto, which dropped sharply last week, improved slightly. I am glad to see some earnings this week.
Latest Settings (Written in Toraripi style)
Here is the list of active currency pairs.
Looking at the settings of each currency pair again, there are no cross-yen currency pairs.
Immediately after the start of Toraripi, we had set the sale of Canadian dollar/yen (CAD/JPY), but while the yen was swinging in the direction of extreme depreciation, we were hit by a negative swap, resulting in a drastic loss cut . rice field.
I would like to participate in cross-yen currency pairs again when the yen swings in the direction of appreciation and it becomes possible to enter by buying, or when the yen raises interest rates and negative swaps are no longer a concern.
The setting differs depending on the currency pair, but I basically have the following image.
It is not different from a general Half & Half strategy, but it has dense traps at the lower and upper zone of the assumed range.
The reason for this setting is as follows. Initially, I tried various things, but this setting increases the profit.
The Reason for Kuroneko-style Half & Half
- Positions obtained at the edge of the range can be held with less unrealized losses (as long as the price moves within the assumed range).
- Positions obtained at the edge of the range are expected to be settled relatively quickly (unless the price is within the assumed range).
- If holding the positions obtained in the middle of the range to the edge of the range, the unrealized loss will be increased largely. So, it is better to keep the number of traps in the middle so that you can withstand.
- For those who has affordable budget, it is okay to increase the number of traps in the center of the assumed range. Recently I also have denser settings for some currency pairs.
In addition, if the price rises or falls outside the assumed range, I think it is okay to set more traps there.
Though it depends on the situation, but you can do it if you are confident that it will return to the assumed range. It requires courage.
However, if it shifts to a completely different range than the expected range, loss cut may happen. So please be careful in your operation.
Here is supplementary information about the settings for each currency pairs below.
Supplementary Information for Currency Pair Settings
- For the pairs operated in both Traripi and Triauto, both settings are described side by side.
- For the sake of convenience, the tri-auto settings are also described as Toraripi-style settings.
- Please note that there are currency pairs with slightly different ranges or settings between Traripi and Triauto.
- When operating with the Kuroneko-style setting, you can reduce (or increase) the number of traps according to your own budget. Please don't overdo.
- Profit width is wider for aiming high profit.
- The number of settlements might be decreased when the profit width is wide. If you want to have a greater number of settlements, you may narrow the profit width.
- If I had more money, I would narrow the profit width and increase the amount of currency per trap. The profit rate may go down, but the absolute value of earned money should go up. (I will be able to earn more money quickly.)
- The ideal is to "leave it alone", but I've been repeatedly changing, adding, or deleting the settings. This week's change is highlighted with red.
Even when the settings are working well, I tend to modify them for better performance!
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP had performed very well, I started to apply the same setting to Triauto as well. Also the number of traps has been increased largely from the original.
As the swap point is now positive for selling, I feel comfortable even if I hold a position for a long time.
The standard or original trap width for me is 0.001 (i.e. 101 traps in 0.1 width). The trap width description has been deleted from the list of EUR/GBP as the trap interval is NOT even in the current setting.
AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD is based on Toraripi settings. Triauto setting just uses surplus budget.
I will add the range above 1.085, but it seems the price will rise above 1.085 again, I will do it when the price starts to drop.
Changes of the week: Profit price width has been changed to 0.007. I believe 0.01 should provide a better performance in backtesting, I felt that the 0.01 traps do not work well with the recent price fluctuations.
I will continue to monitor the impact caused by this setting change.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD still does not make lots of money, I think it will perform well depending on the price fluctuations.
CAD/JPY Just Restarted!
Though CAD/JPY (sell) caused the biggest loss cut in my history in December 2022, I just restarted buying this pair.
Originally, I thought that JPY 90 is the price to buy (or JPY 95 even if I compromise).
Originally, I thought that 90 is the upper limit to buying CAD/JPY or 95 if I compromise. Since it is different from the initial range assumption, I was worried that there would be a lot of unrealized losses when it falls, but I lost over myself, because lots of people seemed to be making money with this pair.
The last push was the article by Toraripi. (See link below. The article is in Japanese.) Traripi's ad won? (Even so, I don't want to enter EUR/JPY (sell) yet because the negative swap is too strong.)
USD/CAD
Toraripi released USD/CAD in May, 2022. It may be a good pair as Toraripi is pushing.
The results so far have been pretty good, and the volatility may be reasonably high.
（According to Hirose Tusho Inc.（ヒロセ通商）, volatility of USD/CAD was 744763.7 pips in 2022 and ranked 14th among their currency pairs.)
Please note that the profit price width is changed at 1.3.
The trap width description has been deleted as the trap interval is NOT even in the current setting.
GBP/USD
In 2022, GBP/USD was low historically and was approaching 1.0 for a while. Therefore, entry with buying was very easy for this currency pair.
I started with Triauto, and applied similar setting to Toraripi in late 2022 as this pair shows strong performance.
The trap interval was initially 0.002, but is now 0.0005 for Triauto, which is 1/4 of the original. This might be too aggressive.
For Toraripi, the traps are increased only for 1.2 or lower.
From a long-term perspective, I don't think there is any problem at all to set the border of half & half at 1.4. It may be good.
However, if we look at the recent 5 years, below 1.3 or 1.25 can be the border as an aggressive setting.
I am pondering this point, but i still think it is okay to consider a little more owing to the current situation. I will let you know as soon as I decide.
Settings under Consideration
CAD/JPY - Withdrawn temporarily
CAD/JPY has become the biggest loss cut in my history.
I suffered from negative swaps for a long time, but when it fell below 100 yen in mid Dec, 2022, I did a loss cut.
I think the next entry point will be when the JPY becomes stronger and it is easy to buy it.
EUR/USD - Withdrawn temporarily
I would like to set selling to avoid negative swaps, but it is not the time and I have temporary withdrawn from this currency pair.
I think the entry by selling should exceed 1.1. Ideally, above 1.2.
I will continue to check the chart and hope to resume when I have a good entry point. At that time, I would like to inform you here.
EUR/AUD
This pair is not for Traripi but for Triauto.
To avoid negative swaps with buying, I am waiting for the timing when I can enter from selling.
I see the border between selling and buying at about 1.55. I am thinking the entry with selling will be made after exceeding 1.6.
AUD/USD
When introducing NZD/USD, I also compared it with AUD/USD as they have close correlation. As AUD/USD has relatively high negative swap points for buying, the entry with selling was preferred, but it was not the timing.
Even if the correlation with NZD/USD is close, the countries are different from Australia and New Zealand, and it will diversify the risk somewhat.
Extra: GBP/AUD
As GBP/AUD is not handled by Traripi or Triauto, it is easily traded with automated trading. However, swap points are relatively low for both buying and selling as both currencies have similar interest, it is easy to trade this currency pair. To enter from selling with positive swap points, I am watching if it falls more. If the price is below 1.7, I will start to buy this pair.
I am thinking to use DMM or OANDA for this trade.
Extra: USD/CHF
As the swap point is high, it may be easy to start with buying if looking at the long-term range. Like the other CHF pairs, it may be a unilateral downtrend, but the historical fluctuation of this pair has not been that extreme. Over 30 years, it has stayed in the range of 0.8 to 1.8. If it falls below 0.9, I am buying this.
The swap point of buying GBP/CHF is also high. The price range is between 1.0 and 2.5 over 30 years. However, it looks like a one-sided downtrend this 10 years compared with USD/CHF.
